What the big money is doing in gold, silver and oil
Every week the US futures regulator publishes how hedge funds and other large speculators are positioned. Read properly, it shows when institutions pile into a trade - and when it's getting crowded. These are the commodities behind Nepal's gold rates and fuel prices.
The latest week
Futures contracts held by large speculators, and how they changed from the week before.
| Commodity | Longs | Change | Shorts | Change | Net position | Net change | Open interest | OI change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Au Gold | 220,530 | ▼ 3,194 | 40,982 | ▲ 3,709 | +179,548 | ▼ 6,903 | 399,169 | ▲ 2,359 |
| Ag Silver | 37,002 | ▲ 1,369 | 15,751 | ▼ 179 | +21,251 | ▲ 1,548 | 115,583 | ▼ 643 |
| Pt Platinum | 28,239 | ▲ 862 | 21,574 | ▲ 3,491 | +6,665 | ▼ 2,629 | 91,278 | ▲ 8,049 |
| Oil Crude oil | 324,523 | ▼ 5,645 | 244,234 | ▼ 11,591 | +80,289 | ▲ 5,946 | 1,908,732 | ▲ 22,452 |
Gold and silver in Nepal: what the futures market says a tola should cost
The world futures price, turned into rupees per tola, plus the premium Nepal usually pays over it, set against the official rate of 9 Nov 2026.
Gold per tola
In line with the futures price.
World price $4,124.00 an ounce · Nepal's usual premium 21.8%Silver per tola
In line with the futures price.
World price $53.19 an ounce · Nepal's usual premium 28.3%The Nepal rate is the stamped (chhapawal) rate set each morning by the Federation of Nepal Gold and Silver Dealers. The futures figure is an estimate from the world price, USD/NPR and the last 30 days of Nepal's premium, not an official price. Not investment advice.
What the COT report is
The Commitments of Traders report is published every Friday by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It lists who held futures contracts at Tuesday's close, in groups. The group that matters most is the large speculators - hedge funds, commodity trading advisers and other money managers. They don't mine gold or refine oil; they bet on the price. When they move together, prices move with them.
Gold & silver rates
Nepal's daily gold and silver rates follow the international price and the rupee. When funds pile into gold futures, the price abroad rises - and so does the rate in Kathmandu's jewellery shops.
Fuel and inflation
Nepal imports all its fuel. Crude feeds into Nepal Oil Corporation's prices, transport and inflation, the trade deficit - and, through interest rates and bank liquidity, the share market.
The metals mood
Positioning across precious metals shows whether big money is seeking safety or taking risk - context for the whole market, NEPSE included.
How to read institutional activity from the COT report
Who the "big money" is
Every week the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) publishes who holds futures contracts. The large speculators - hedge funds, commodity trading advisers and other money managers - are the institutional traders who bet on direction. Their positions are what this page tracks.
Net position: the direction of the bet
Longs minus shorts. A rising net means funds are turning more bullish; a falling net, more bearish. Several weeks in a row in the same direction is a trend in positioning - more meaningful than a single week.
COT Index: is it crowded?
Where this week's net sits between its lowest and highest of the last three years. Above 80 the trade is crowded long; below 20, washed out (the least bullish they get). Extremes are where trends often tire - when everyone has already bought, who is left to buy?
Open interest: is new money behind it?
Open interest is the total number of open contracts. Net rising with open interest = fresh money joining (stronger). Net rising while open interest falls = shorts being closed (often weaker). The same logic works on the way down.
Use it with price, not instead of it
Positioning tells you who is in the trade, not when it ends. A crowded long can stay crowded for weeks. Combine it with the price trend and the news - and remember the report is three days old when it comes out.
Why it matters in Nepal
Gold and silver rates in Nepal follow the international price and the rupee, so fund positioning abroad shows up in Kathmandu's jewellery shops. Nepal imports all its fuel, so crude oil feeds into fuel prices, inflation, the trade deficit - and, through interest rates and bank liquidity, the share market. Read our precious metals and interest rates guides.
Source: CFTC Commitments of Traders (legacy report, non-commercial positions), updated weekly. Positioning is research, not a price forecast or investment advice.
See exactly what the institutions are doing
One clear card per commodity: how much the funds hold, how it changed this week and over the month, how crowded it is against the last three years, whether new money is behind the move - with 6-month charts against US bond yields.
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