Risk reward simulator
Type how much you risk and how much you aim to make on each trade, and how often you win. We draw a random run of trades - wins, losses and the losing streaks in between - and show where your account ends up, then repeat it 1,000 times so you can see what is typical and what is just bad luck. Nothing you type leaves your browser.
This run one random sequence - move over the curve for each trade
Show every trade
| # | Result | Streak | Profit / loss | Balance |
|---|
What 1,000 runs of the same plan say the luck of the draw, averaged out
Where the account ends
The bar spans the middle 8 runs in 10; the black mark is the typical (median) run, the dashed line is your starting capital.
Longest losing streak, run by run
How many of the 1,000 runs had their worst streak at each length. Red bars are 5 or more losses in a row.
Typical biggest drawdown over those runs: —.
How to read it
- Risk is the share of your account you lose when a trade hits its stop. Reward is the share you gain when it hits its target. 1% risk and 2% reward is a reward-to-risk of 2 to 1.
- Break-even win rate = risk ÷ (risk + reward). A 2-to-1 plan breaks even at 33%; a 1-to-1 plan needs 50%. Costs push it a little higher.
- Average edge per trade is win rate × reward − loss rate × risk, as a share of the account. Positive does not mean smooth: the same edge can give a bad first 20 trades.
- Longest losing streak is the thing that ends accounts. Run the simulator with your own win rate and watch how often five, six or eight losses in a row turn up - then ask whether you would still follow your plan after them.
- Drawdown is the fall from the account's highest balance. A 30% drawdown needs a 43% gain to get back.
Before you size a trade
Risking 1% a trade is a very different life from risking 10%: try both with the same win rate. Our research on what happened after NEPSE stocks fell and on circuit limits and exits shows why a stop-loss in a locked market may not fill at your price. Work out your costs with the share calculator.
This is a simulation for learning: random numbers, not real prices, and no promise of any result. It is not investment advice.