Risk disclosure

Last updated 31 October 2026

1. Shares can lose value

The price of any share listed on the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) can fall as well as rise, sometimes quickly and by a lot. A company can make losses, cut or stop its dividend, raise new shares that dilute yours, be suspended from trading, merge on terms you don't like, or fail altogether. Index-wide falls happen too: NEPSE fell by more than 40% from its 2021 peak.

2. NEPSE-specific risks

• Liquidity. Many listed shares trade thinly. You may not be able to sell when you want, or only at a much lower price.
• Circuit limits and halts. Daily price limits and trading halts can stop you from selling during a fall.
• Concentration and manipulation. A few large traders or brokers can move a thinly traded share sharply. Our cornering and floorsheet readings try to spot this, but they cannot see everything - direct BO-to-BO transfers do not appear on the floorsheet.
• New supply. Promoter share sales, auctions and lock-in expiries can add many shares to the market at once.
• Policy and regulation. Decisions by Nepal Rastra Bank, SEBON, NEPSE or the Government - on interest rates, margin lending, sector rules or taxes - can move prices across the market.
• Settlement, costs and tax. Broker commission, SEBON and DP fees, and capital-gains tax reduce your returns. Our figures do not deduct them unless a page says so.

3. IPOs

An IPO prospectus is the company's own document. SEBON approves it for publication; it does not guarantee that its figures are accurate or that its projections will come true. Projections are promises, not results. Our IPO check reads the prospectus and may misread a figure - when it can't read one, it says so - so check the prospectus itself before applying.

4. Backtests and hit rates

Every hit rate and backtest on MacroLens NP measures what happened in the past, replayed using only the information available on each day. Past results do not guarantee future results. A reading that worked before can stop working when market rules, liquidity or participants change. Backtests also have limits: limited history, data errors, and the absence of trading costs and slippage. Use them to judge how much weight a reading deserves, not as a forecast.

5. Data may be wrong or late

Data comes from NEPSE, SEBON, Nepal Rastra Bank, company filings and other public sources, and is processed automatically. It can be delayed, incomplete or wrong, and our calculations can contain errors. Prices on this site may not be live.

6. Not investment advice

MacroLens NP is independent research and education. It is not a stockbroker, merchant banker, portfolio manager or investment adviser licensed by the Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON). Nothing on the site - a rating, a verdict, a fair value, a price target, a buy / sell meter reading, an IPO verdict or anything else - is a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, or advice suited to your circumstances. You alone are responsible for your investment decisions and their results.

7. Invest only what you can afford to lose

Do not invest borrowed money or money you need for living costs. Spread your investments, consider your own finances and how long you can stay invested, and consult a SEBON-licensed professional if you need advice.