Case study: NIC Asia Bank (NICA) - a liquidity sweep, a CHoCH and an order block (target reached)

Case study - written after this trade played out, to show the method step by step. It was not a live call, and it isn't advice to buy or sell.

The setup. NIC Asia Bank (NICA) had been making lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. On 2025-01-28 a candle dipped below the last swing low at Rs 351.6 and closed back above it: the sell-side liquidity under that low was taken, but sellers couldn't hold the price down.

The trigger. On 2025-02-03 price closed above the last lower high at Rs 371.8 - a change of character (CHoCH). The last down candle at the bottom of that move is the order block: Rs 350.0 to Rs 362.8, in the discount half of the range.

The plan. A limit buy at the top of the block, Rs 362.8. The stop just under the block at Rs 348.2 - a 4.0% risk. The target 1 : 2 at Rs 391.9.

Stage B: the bigger trend was still down, so this was a trade on the internal turn only - which is why the target stays modest, below the next big lower high.

What our data said on 2025-02-06, before the entry: MacroLens Rating D (10/100) - a weak score; the latest report (Q2 81/82, published 2025-01-20) showed a loss of Rs 2.5 a share over the last year; a typical Rs 3.4 crore traded a day (easy to trade). The data was weak: a D rating and a loss over the last year. The chart setup still worked - but a trade like this is for the short term only, not an investment. Want to check today's numbers yourself? Use the "Check NICA yourself" links under this idea - the rating, fair value, dump risk, cornering and liquidity are all on the MacroLens NP desk (Pro tools).

What happened. Price came back into the block on 2025-02-06, the order filled, and the target was reached on 2025-02-27.

The lesson. The sweep showed who was in control, the CHoCH confirmed it, and the block gave a place to buy with a clear stop. Waiting for price to come back to the block - instead of chasing the move up - is what made the risk small and the reward twice as big.

The method - swing, internal and fractal structure, order blocks and liquidity - is explained in full in our e-book The Complete NEPSE Trader. The rating, report and broker figures are MacroLens NP's own data as it stood on the entry day.