Case study: Nepal SBI Bank (SBI) - a liquidity sweep, a CHoCH and an order block (target reached)

Case study - written after this trade played out, to show the method step by step. It was not a live call, and it isn't advice to buy or sell.

The setup. Nepal SBI Bank (SBI) had been making lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. On 2026-07-13 a candle dipped below the last swing low at Rs 384.1 and closed back above it: the sell-side liquidity under that low was taken, but sellers couldn't hold the price down.

The trigger. On 2026-07-20 price closed above the last lower high at Rs 400.0 - a change of character (CHoCH). The last down candle at the bottom of that move is the order block: Rs 380.0 to Rs 393.0, in the discount half of the range.

The plan. A limit buy at the top of the block, Rs 392.0. The stop just under the block at Rs 378.1 - a 3.5% risk. The target 1 : 2 at Rs 419.8.

Stage A: the bigger trend was up and the internal structure had just turned up with it - both layers on the same side.

What our data said on 2026-07-23, before the entry: MacroLens Rating CCC (34/100) - a weak score; the latest report (Q3 82/83, published 2026-04-28) showed earnings of Rs 18.2 a share over the last year, up 0% on a year earlier, and a return on equity of 10%; a P/E of 22 at the entry price; a typical Rs 81 lakh traded a day (fair to trade). The data was weak here: a CCC rating and profits barely growing. The chart setup still worked - a reminder that a weak company can bounce, but we'd treat it as a short trade only, never an investment. Want to check today's numbers yourself? Use the "Check SBI yourself" links under this idea - the rating, fair value, dump risk, cornering and liquidity are all on the MacroLens NP desk (Pro tools).

What happened. Price came back into the block on 2026-07-23, the order filled, and the target was reached on 2026-07-28.

The lesson. The sweep showed who was in control, the CHoCH confirmed it, and the block gave a place to buy with a clear stop. Waiting for price to come back to the block - instead of chasing the move up - is what made the risk small and the reward twice as big.

The method - swing, internal and fractal structure, order blocks and liquidity - is explained in full in our e-book The Complete NEPSE Trader. The rating, report and broker figures are MacroLens NP's own data as it stood on the entry day.