Setup, but skip: Sagarmatha Jalbidhyut (SMJC) - the chart says buy, our data says no

Skip - posted on 27 Oct 2026. The chart shows a textbook setup, but our own data says stay away. We're posting it to show the filter at work: a setup alone is not enough. Not advice.

The setup. Sagarmatha Jalbidhyut (SMJC) swept below its swing low at Rs 396.0 on 2026-10-14 and closed back above it - the sell-side liquidity was taken. On 2026-10-26 it closed above the last lower high at Rs 433.8: a change of character (CHoCH). The order block behind that move sits at Rs 393.0 to Rs 421.0, in the discount half of the range.

Where price is now. The last close was Rs 443.9 on 2026-10-26.

What our data says today - 2 of 6 checks look good. Rating: B (weak); Dump risk: Extreme (weak); Fair value: 241% above fair value (weak); Company health: Danger (weak); Who's trading it: Hard (good); What's coming: Nothing big (good). Want to check these numbers yourself? Use the "Check SMJC yourself" links under this idea - the rating, fair value, dump risk, cornering and liquidity are all on the MacroLens NP desk (Pro tools).

Our data says no: an Extreme dump risk, a B rating, a danger verdict on the latest report and a price far above fair value. Extreme dump risk means a sharp fall is a real possibility - no chart setup outweighs that.

The method - swing, internal and fractal structure, order blocks, liquidity and the six checks - is in our e-book The Complete NEPSE Trader. Results will be shown here as they happen, wins and losses alike.