Case study: Api Power (API) - a liquidity sweep, a CHoCH and an order block (stopped out)

Case study - written after this trade played out, to show the method step by step. It was not a live call, and it isn't advice to buy or sell.

The setup. Api Power (API) had been making lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. On 2026-05-05 a candle dipped below the last swing low at Rs 331.1 and closed back above it: the sell-side liquidity under that low was taken, but sellers couldn't hold the price down.

The trigger. On 2026-05-25 price closed above the last lower high at Rs 357.2 - a change of character (CHoCH). The last down candle at the bottom of that move is the order block: Rs 326.0 to Rs 341.0, in the discount half of the range.

The plan. A limit buy at the top of the block, Rs 340.0. The stop just under the block at Rs 324.4 - a 4.6% risk. The target 1 : 2 at Rs 371.3.

Stage A: the bigger trend was up and the internal structure had just turned up with it - both layers on the same side.

What our data said on 2026-06-12, before the entry: MacroLens Rating AA (79/100) - a strong score; the latest report (Q3 82/83, published 2026-05-12) showed earnings of Rs 11.5 a share over the last year, down 4% on a year earlier, and a return on equity of 10%; a P/E of 30 at the entry price; a typical Rs 12.4 crore traded a day (easy to trade). Mostly good signs: an AA rating. The trade still failed - good data improves the odds; it doesn't remove the risk. Want to check today's numbers yourself? Use the "Check API yourself" links under this idea - the rating, fair value, dump risk, cornering and liquidity are all on the MacroLens NP desk (Pro tools).

What happened. Price came back into the block on 2026-06-12 and the order filled, but it closed through the bottom of the block and the stop was hit on 2026-07-13.

The lesson. This setup looked as good as the winners at the entry - losses like this are part of the method, and no setup works every time. The close below the block was the signal that the idea was wrong. With 1% risk per trade it costs about 1R (a little more with costs and T+2) - that's why the size matters more than the pick.

The method - swing, internal and fractal structure, order blocks and liquidity - is explained in full in our e-book The Complete NEPSE Trader. The rating, report and broker figures are MacroLens NP's own data as it stood on the entry day.