Case study: Everest Bank (EBL) - a liquidity sweep, a CHoCH and an order block (stopped out)

Case study - written after this trade played out, to show the method step by step. It was not a live call, and it isn't advice to buy or sell.

The setup. Everest Bank (EBL) had been making lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart. On 2026-04-24 a candle dipped below the last swing low at Rs 655.3 and closed back above it: the sell-side liquidity under that low was taken, but sellers couldn't hold the price down.

The trigger. On 2026-05-11 price closed above the last lower high at Rs 670.5 - a change of character (CHoCH). The last down candle at the bottom of that move is the order block: Rs 649.5 to Rs 669.5, in the discount half of the range.

The plan. A limit buy at the top of the block, Rs 669.5. The stop just under the block at Rs 646.3 - a 3.5% risk. The target 1 : 2 at Rs 716.0.

Stage A: the bigger trend was up and the internal structure had just turned up with it - both layers on the same side.

What our data said on 2026-05-13, before the entry: MacroLens Rating BBB (60/100) - a middling score; the latest report (Q3 82/83, published 2026-04-27) showed earnings of Rs 34.9 a share over the last year, up 5% on a year earlier, and a return on equity of 15%; a P/E of 20 at the entry price; a typical Rs 2.0 crore traded a day (easy to trade). (Bonus shares came after the trade; the chart and prices here are adjusted for them, so as traded they were about 5% higher. The P/E uses the price as traded.) A mixed picture in the data, with nothing strongly good or bad; the chart gave the timing. The close below the block was the exit. Want to check today's numbers yourself? Use the "Check EBL yourself" links under this idea - the rating, fair value, dump risk, cornering and liquidity are all on the MacroLens NP desk (Pro tools).

What happened. Price came back into the block on 2026-05-13 and the order filled, but it closed through the bottom of the block and the stop was hit on 2026-06-19.

The lesson. This setup looked as good as the winners at the entry - losses like this are part of the method, and no setup works every time. The close below the block was the signal that the idea was wrong. With 1% risk per trade it costs about 1R (a little more with costs and T+2) - that's why the size matters more than the pick.

The method - swing, internal and fractal structure, order blocks and liquidity - is explained in full in our e-book The Complete NEPSE Trader. The rating, report and broker figures are MacroLens NP's own data as it stood on the entry day.