Five years after the bubble: 4 in 5 NEPSE stocks are still below their 2021 peak
In August 2021 NEPSE hit its all-time high of about 3,199. Five years later the index is around 2,625 - still about 18% lower. But the index hides how deep the damage really goes. We checked every company that traded through 2021 against its own 2021 peak, using adjusted prices so bonus and right shares are counted fairly. The answer: four out of five NEPSE stocks are still below their 2021 peak, and the typical one is about 29% under it.
The numbers
- 123 of 153 companies (80%) are still below their highest 2021 price.
- The typical stock is 29% below its 2021 peak.
- 26 companies are more than half below it. The worst are around 70% down.
- For the stocks still below, the typical one needs to rise about 53% just to get back to its 2021 price.
- Only 30 companies are above their 2021 high today - although 80 managed to beat it at some point after 2021, and most of those slipped back below.
Why the index looks better than your portfolio
The NEPSE index is weighted by company size. A few big companies that recovered well can lift the index while hundreds of smaller shares stay far below their highs. Most people who bought in 2021 didn't buy the index - they bought popular smaller stocks, often hydropower, microfinance and finance companies that had run up the most. Those are the ones that fell the furthest.
The companies that came back - and beyond
| Company | Sector | Now vs 2021 peak |
|---|---|---|
| Soaltee Hotel (SHL) | Hotel | +142% |
| Unilever Nepal (UNL) | Manufacturing | +133% |
| NRN Infrastructure and Development (NRN) | Investment | +119% |
| Green Development Bank (GRDBL) | Development bank | +108% |
| Narayani Development Bank (NABBC) | Development bank | +91% |
Notice what they are: a hotel company that benefited from tourism coming back, a consumer company with steady profits, and a few smaller names that had their own stories. They are not the 2021 favourites.
What 2021 buyers should learn
- A bubble peak can take many years to come back - if it ever does. In 2021 prices ran far ahead of profits. Profits haven't grown enough since to justify those prices for most companies.
- "It'll come back to my buying price" is a trap. Waiting for a share to return to the price you paid is anchoring - the market doesn't know or care what you paid. The real question is: would you buy it today at today's price?
- Losses need bigger gains to recover. A 29% fall needs a 41% rise to get back; a 50% fall needs 100%. Avoiding big losses matters more than catching big gains.
- The business decides in the end. The stocks that beat their 2021 peak mostly had profits that grew into the price. Check the company's rating and fair value before you hold on and hope.
How to look at your own 2021 shares
- Forget your buying price for a moment. Look at the company as if you were buying it today.
- Is it healthy? Check its latest quarterly report - profits, bad loans for banks, debt for hydropower.
- Is the price fair against what the business earns now?
- If you wouldn't buy it today, holding it is the same decision as buying it. Selling a loser and moving the money to a better company is often how a portfolio recovers - not by waiting.
Our beginner's guide and the company pages on MacroLens NP show each company's health, rating and fair value in plain words.
Sources - our data (MacroLens NP): adjusted daily closing prices of 153 listed companies that traded through 2021 (Jan 2021 - Oct 2026), compared with each one's highest close in 2021; NEPSE index levels. Survivorship note: companies that merged or delisted since 2021 are not included, so the real picture for 2021 buyers was a little worse. Chart: MacroLens NP. Cover photo: public domain. This is education, not investment advice.
