IPO result in Nepal: how the lottery works and your real odds
You applied for the IPO, waited a week, checked the result - and got "Not Alloted" again. You are not unlucky. For a popular Nepali IPO, most applicants get nothing, and the reason is simple maths. This guide shows how to check your IPO result, how the allotment lottery really works, how to work out your real chance of getting shares, and what you can actually do about it.
How to check your IPO result
There are two places, and both show the same answer:
- CDSC's IPO result page (iporesult.cdsc.com.np): choose the company from the list, enter your 16-digit BOID and the captcha. It says whether you were allotted and how many shares.
- Mero Share: go to My ASBA, then Application Report, and open the issue. The status changes from "Verified" to "Alloted" or "Not Alloted" once the result is published.
Results usually come out within about a week of the issue closing. If you were not allotted, the amount blocked in your bank account is released - you never paid it, so there is nothing to "refund", but the release can take a few days after the result.
How the lottery works
An IPO's shares are not all for the general public. Parts are set aside first - for example for the company's employees, for mutual funds, for Nepalis working abroad, and for people in a hydropower project's affected area. What is left goes to ordinary applicants like you.
When far more people apply than there are shares - which is normal - the shares are given by a computerised lottery. To spread them across as many people as possible, each winner usually gets only the minimum lot of 10 shares. So the number of winners is roughly:
winners = shares for the general public ÷ 10
Everyone else gets nothing. Applying for 1,000 shares instead of 10 does not buy you more lottery tickets - in a heavily oversubscribed issue, it just blocks more money for a week.
Your real odds, worked out
Take a simple example (round numbers, to show the method):
- After the reserved quotas, 10 lakh shares are left for the general public.
- At 10 shares each, that makes 1 lakh winners.
- 15 lakh valid applications came in.
Your chance is 1 lakh ÷ 15 lakh = about 1 in 15, or 6.7%. With millions of demat accounts in Nepal and a few lakh to a few million shares per issue, odds in that range - often worse - are common for popular IPOs. To find the real number for any issue, divide the public shares by 10, then divide by the number of applicants (published with the result).
Why you "never" get shares - and why that's normal
Low odds feel personal when you lose ten times in a row, but they add up in a predictable way. If your chance per IPO is about 7%, the chance of getting at least one allotment is:
- after 5 IPOs: about 30%
- after 10 IPOs: about 52%
- after 20 IPOs: about 77%
(The maths: 1 - 0.93n for n applications.) So even a steady applicant can go a year without a single allotment and still have done nothing wrong. The only real lever is to apply to every IPO you are happy to hold, every time.
When "Not Alloted" is your fault
Some applications never enter the lottery at all. Check these if you keep missing:
- Not enough balance in the linked bank account when the amount was blocked.
- Applying twice for the same person - through two banks, or from two demat accounts under one name. Duplicate applications are rejected, often both of them.
- Wrong CRN, or a bank account in Mero Share that doesn't match your demat details.
- Applying in the wrong quota - the foreign-employment quota needs a valid labour permit, for example.
Your Application Report in Mero Share shows whether the application was verified before the lottery. "Verified" then "Not Alloted" means you were in the draw and simply lost.
Does applying for family members help?
Yes - legally, every person with their own demat account and Mero Share is a separate lottery entry. A family of four applying each time has roughly four times the chance of at least one allotment. What does not work is one person applying several times: that gets rejected.
You got shares. Now what?
Allotted shares land in your demat account and can be sold once the company lists on NEPSE, usually a few weeks later. New listings often rise for several days in a row, which tempts people to buy more - but that is a different decision from applying at Rs 100. We followed what happened after listing in 85 NEPSE IPOs, and IPO watch shows upcoming and recent issues. Before you apply, our IPO check looks at the company's numbers so you know what you're holding if you win.
New to IPOs? Start with how to apply for an IPO on Mero Share.
Quick answers
How long does an IPO result take? Usually around a week after the issue closes.
Does applying for more shares increase my chance? Not in an oversubscribed issue - winners usually get the minimum 10 shares, and you are one entry either way.
When is my money released if I didn't get shares? The blocked amount is released after the result, typically within a few days.
Can I apply from my family members' accounts? Each person can apply from their own demat and Mero Share. One person applying twice gets rejected.
This article is for education, not investment advice.
